I was researching the number of car companies over time for an update to my IT books. I asked Gemini for some numbers and it gave me the below table. I presume that the numbers are off, but from the verification I did, they aren’t far off and are certainly correct from an order of magnitude point of view.
There was a time when everyone with any mechanical skill went into the car making business. Then the shakeout happened and the all went away.
The same is happening in AI. Anyone who can make a prompt and knows how to fiddle with software has a grand idea for a business. There are probably hundreds of companies that are create software tools to support AI work.
The majority of these companies will fail. They will go under or get bought by a few big companies.
Owning a car from a company that has gone out of business is not a bad thing. You can still put gas in it and drive it. But software (that is probably running on a subscription) is a different thing and when that company goes under, you likely won’t be able to run the software anymore.
Be careful.
| Year / Benchmark | Active Producing Companies | Primary Industrial Dynamics & Key Events |
| 1890 | 2 | Early experimental workshops; pre-commercial phase. |
| 1895 | 10 | Duryea Motor Wagon Company founded; commercial auto production begins. |
| 1900 | ~100 | Rapid entry of steam, electric, and gasoline car builders. |
| 1905 | ~250 | High growth in localized machine shops and carriage conversion firms. |
| 1909 | ~500+ | Historical peak of active corporate entrants; peak market fragmentation. |
| 1913 | ~300 | Ford introduces the moving assembly line; start of scale-driven shakeout. |
| 1918 | ~150 | World War I industrial conversion and capital consolidation. |
| 1921 | 88 | Post-WWI economic recession; 88 active car producing firms verified. |
| 1925 | 60 | Rapid market dominance by Ford, GM, and newly formed Chrysler. |
| 1927 | 44 | Industrial shakeout cuts active producing firms in half within six years. |
| 1932 | 25 | Great Depression eliminates luxury boutique and mid-tier firms. |
| 1939 | 18 | Pre-WWII consolidation; survival restricted to Big Three and top independents. |
| 1942–1945 | 0 (civilian) | Total wartime manufacturing conversion to military materiel. |
| 1948 | 15 | Postwar resurgence; Tucker Corporation produces the Tucker 48. |
| 1954 | 10 | Postwar price war triggers AMC and Studebaker-Packard mergers. |
| 1960 | 7 | Market dominated by GM, Ford, Chrysler, AMC, and Studebaker. |
| 1966 | 5 | Studebaker terminates auto production; Big Three and AMC remain. |
| 1975 | 6 | Emergence of specialized low-volume sports car and component builders. |
| 1985 | 12 | Growth of specialty hypercar/kit builders (Saleen, Callaway, Vector). |
| 1995 | 18 | Expansion of specialty sports car manufacturers and electric pioneers. |
| 2005 | 28 | Early electric vehicle startup phase; Tesla founded in 2003. |
| 2015 | 42 | Influx of venture capital for electric, autonomous, and commercial startups. |
| 2026 | 55+ | Active market split between legacy multinationals and specialized EV builders |